One of my goals for 2014 is to continue doing serious work, conducting market research using classic market research principles and to make my living by providing value to my industry and to my clients by focusing on my own constant quality improvement and providing unbiased, independent and objective market research as a base for the true visionaries of this industry. 

Another goal is to continue giving back to this industry — solar — that has given me so much in return for my efforts. So, here’s to more solar in 2014, positive margins for all, new start up activity — globally — accurate reporting of costs, less aggressive pricing, high quality, more DG solar on schools and in communities — globally, more investment in off grid solar for developing regions of the world and industrialized regions, a focus on energy efficiency and an understanding that conservation and sacrifice are not synonymous– the real sacrifice is the damage we are doing to our environment. For my community of solar professionals and for everyone who wants a future of cleaner air and energy independence — Happy Holidays and a wonderful 2014.

Companies make announcements for a number of reasons:

1. To call attention to something worthy of attention
2. To divert attention from something else
3. To legitimize something (under the heading, everything you read in the news or in a press release must be true)
4. To keep the company’s name in the public’s mind
5. To announce a new product available for sale
6. To correct mistakes or apologize (under the heading of, whoops, we really did not mean it)
Announcements are not data. Examples include announcements to distribute a product in the future that is not yet in commercial production and for which one party has no financial stake, or, announcements of results for champion cells/modules that are likely years away from commercial production, among others.

In market research, the process is the most important thing.  The first goal of a market researcher should be to eliminate bias so to arrive at an independent analysis that may or may not fit with the beliefs of the client.  The goal in doing so is to provide the client with an objective assessment of what is being studied to protect the client from internal bias wherever possible.  While it may be uncomfortable when the results of research disagree with internal views, the value of independent analysis is that it forces a rethinking of beliefs as well as offering a degree of protection against the unexpected and potentially costly unknown, as well as the cost of complacency.  The very practice of market research tends to neutralize complacency because if the population is set up correctly and enough data are gathered to appropriately represent the population being studied, what you believe becomes unimportant.The rigor of objectivity is what all market researchers strive for in their work.

Usually I follow a strict protocol with Notes from the Solar Underground as well as other sections of the Solar Flare, that is, stick to the data and facts and keep the ‘I’ out of the writing. In this issue I am breaking from this tradition and getting personal. October 27th was the anniversary of my first year in business – first year as a small business owner – first year without a regular paycheck and with mistakes, successes and everything in-between, what a year it has been.

During this year I have rediscovered, not that I had forgotten, both the value of independent unbiased analysis as well as how difficult it can be to stand behind an independent, unbiased view when it disagrees with the closely held beliefs of others. While it may be uncomfortable when the results of research disagree with internal views, the value of independent analysis is that it forces a rethinking of beliefs as well as offering a degree of protection against the un-expected and potentially costly unknown. What I refer to here is the unexpected event that is unaccounted for simply because it falls outside of imagining.

For the past 16 years I have worked in an industry of entrepreneurs and pioneers – brave people who have chosen to base their careers on developing and deploying a technology that is considered too expensive by many and which competes with entrenched conventional energy. My mentors have always had high ideals and standards, fought tough odds where success is anything but ensured and continued fighting against all odds and in the face of failure and the unrelenting undervaluing of the industry’s product: clean solar energy. I work with and for my mentors and heroes, a group that includes installers, manufacturers, business people and government employees. Everyone I know well in solar is dedicated to the common cause of changing the world and making the air safe to breathe.

My goal is to keep setting the bar higher every time I complete an analysis, a report or a project. The solar industry – against all odds – has an upward growth trajectory – so should quality. I am lucky to serve an industry that, though often beleaguered and truly quirky, also enjoys a wealth of creativity, passion, courage, and true grit in the face of significant obstacles to its success.

Happy birthday SPV Market Research, I hope to see you grow and eventually, I hope to train the next generation of solar market researchers – who will be brave enough, curious enough and passionate enough to set the bar ever higher and take this 38 year old solar market research practice and its mountain of data into the future.

Arguments that climate change does not a) exist or that b) humans are not responsible for accelerating it are exacerbating the quiescence of  observers, many of whom prefer to wait until action will no longer, sadly, ameliorate it.  Those making the arguments that climate change is not our problem to solve will not be able to avoid its harsher effects and nor will those who sit by waiting for proof.

Market research can be best understood as the study of the behavior of what is being observed over time to establish patterns (trends) through quantitative means so to extrapolate likely future behavior (typically selling and buying behavior).  At its best the survey effort should be directed to both buyers and sellers in a market with all questions developed to arrive at a quantitative response. 

Market research begins with identifying the appropriate population and the % of the population most likely to deliver responses that are representative of the whole.

The survey should be carefully constructed to eliminate the bias of the researcher as well as the bias of the survey population, that is, it should be highly quantitative in nature. 

A one to ten scale survey is qualitative, and while useful, should be backed up with quantitative responses.  This tool has high uncertainty. That is, the rankings are subjective.  One person’s two is another person’s five.

Polling that is yes and no surveys, are qualitative and while useful, should be backed up with quantitative responses. This tool has high uncertainty and should take into account the likelihood of respondents giving misleading responses.

Quantitative surveys: medium to low uncertainty and must take into account how the population was selected, the survey constructed, the bias of the analyst, the bias of the subjects and the bias of the client receiving the results. 

Uncertainty should always be factored into the analysis, that is, the methodology of the population (how it was set up) should be considered in that it may not be representative of the whole; also, what you didn’t ask, the % of answers assumed to be representative of the whole, how the questions were constructed, the bias of the analyst/researcher, the degree to which noise could be filtered out (other analyses and secondary data), the degree to which the bias of the subjects was filtered due to gathering an appropriate number of data, as well as the assumed responses of those who did not answer or who were not included. 

Even the most stringent and objective analysis can be undone by the market researcher’s own desire to see a different result and/or the researcher’s desire to please the client. The goal is and should be to provide an unbiased result that accurately represents the market as well as the participants in the market. The goal is to inform and aid the client in objective decision making.

Sample TOC, contact pmints@spvmarketresearch.com for purchase information.

3.1             Historical Industry Overview.. 6

Figure 3.1 Off-Grid Application Demand Profile: 2007-2012. 6

Figure 3.2 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1986-2000. 7

Figure 3.3 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1992-2000. 8

Table 3.1 PV Industry Growth 1991 – 2013 Estimate*. 9

Figure 3.4 Photovoltaic Industry History: 1976 to 2012. 11

Table 3.2 Application Trends 1996-2012 ^(1,2,3) 15

Table 3.3 Generic Application Segments. 16

Table 3.4 Regional Application Deployment, 2012*. 18

Table 3.5 Regional Demand, Installations and Shipments, 2007-2012*. 19

3.2             Application Market Share and Growth Rates. 20

Table 3.6 Aggregate Application Growth, 2007-2012*. 20

Figure 3.5 Low, Conservative & Accelerated Grid Connected Forecast, 2012- 2017. 22

Figure 3.6 Low, Conservative & Accelerated Off Grid Forecast, 2012- 2017. 22

Table 3.7 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2002-2022. 24

Table 3.8 Three Year Application Forecast, 2012 – 2015*. 25

Figure 3.7 PV Industry Inventory, Capacity, Production, Shipments, Installations & Defective modules, 2012  27

Figure 3.8 PV Industry Inventory, Capacity, Production, Shipments, Installations & Defective modules, Estimate 2013  27

3.3             Photovoltaic Revenue Growth. 28

Figure 3.9 Worldwide Cell/Module Revenue Forecast 2001-2017. 28

Figure 3.10 Worldwide System Revenue Estimate, 2012. 29

Table 3.9 Worldwide Module Revenues & Shipments, Conservative & Accelerated For cast 2002-2017 ⁽¹⁾ 2012 Current Dollars. 30

3.4 Selling Channels. 31

Table 3.10 2012 Selling Channels for Major Applications by Volume Share^{(1) (2)} 33

Table 3.11 Major Photovoltaic Application Categories. 42

3.5             Forecast Demand Volume 2012 – 2017. 43

Table 3.12 PV Industry Application Growth* 1987-2012. 43

Table 3.13 Conservative Application Forecast, 2007-2017*. 45

Table 3.14 Accelerated Application Forecast, 2007-2017*. 46

3.6             Market Sector Analysis. 47

3.6.1         Market Share by Application and Module Size. 48

Figure 3.11 Market Shares by Module Size, 2011. 48

Figure 3.12 Market Shares by Module Size, 2012. 49

Table 3.16 Historic Market Share by Application & Module Size ^{(1) (2) (3)} 50

Table 3.17 2012 Market Share by Application & Module Size⁽¹⁾ 51

Figure 3.13 Market Shares by Technology, 2010, 2011, 2012. 51

3.6.3         Remote Industrial Application. 52

Figure 3.14 Remote Industrial Regional Market Shares, 2012. 52

3.6.3         Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry. 53

Table 3.18 Communications & Telemetry, MWp & % of Category 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 54

3.6.4         Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection. 58

Table 3.19 Cathodic Protection Applications MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 60

3.6.5         Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals. 61

Table 3.20 Transportation Signals Applications MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 64

3.6.7         Remote Habitation. 65

Figure 3.15 Remote Habitation Regional Market Shares, 2012. 65

3.6.8         Remote Habitation: Water Pumping. 66

Table 3.21 Water Pumping MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 68

3.6.9 Remote Habitation : Village Power. 70

Table 3.22 Village Power Applications MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 72

3.6.10       Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting. 76

Table 3.23 Outdoor Lighting Applications MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 78

3.6.11       Remote Habitation: Other. 79

Table 3.24 Other Applications MWp & % of Category, 2007-2012^{(1) (2)} 80

3.6.12       Consumer Power. 81

Figure 3.16 Consumer Power Regional Market Shares, 2012. 81

Table 3.25 Consumer Power Applications MWp & % of Category 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 84

3.6.13 Grid-Connected. 86

Figure 3.17 Grid Residential, Commercial and Utility Regional Market Shares, 2012. 86

Figure 3.18 Grid-Connected History & Forecast, 2012-2017*. 88

Table 3.26 Grid-Connected Application Growth 1992-2012*. 89

Table 3.27 Grid Connected Applications MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017 ^{(1) (2)} 90

Table 3.28 Summary of End User Concerns*. 93

Table 3.29 US and EU 2012 System Price Averages*. 98

3.6.14        Consumer Indoor. 99

Figure 3.19 Consumer Indoor Regional Market Shares, 2012. 99

Table 3.30 Consumer Indoor MWp & % of Category, 2007-2017^{(1) (2)} 101

3.7             Application Forecast to 2022. 102

Figure 3.20 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast, MWp 2002-2022. 102

Figure 3.21 Long-Term Price Forecast, MWp 1992-2022. 103

A good forecast should be defined by its applicability to the market it addresses and its usability.  A good forecast should define the total addressable market as well as considering all limitations to addressing the full market thus arriving at a conservative and risk identifying assessment.

Standing your ground in support of an objective, unbiased analysis is always in the best interest of the client as long as the methodology practiced for the survey effort is consistent, the survey questions appropriate and focused on quantitative results and you remain aware of and factor in, the potential for error in the available primary data.