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Listen Chapter 1 of Bad Luck, Radar Love:

Now available on Amazon the first book in the Scott Roth Series.

“Full moon, golden night, just the gentle sound of traffic heading somewhere, often nowhere good, sometimes just nowhere. Then. A dull thud and crunching, a sound like blood and bones cracking, and something awful happening that won’t be forgotten, and will change everything. A sound that left no time for regret or remembering, and reduced everything that is soft about the night to a sound that was like no other sound; maybe just a flat tire, maybe something else.”

After midnight on a hot August Southern California night, former homicide detective Scott Roth answers his phone and learns that his best friend had been killed in a hit and run accident.

Roth had been a good cop. In the beginning, the bodies of the victims and the living who still loved them didn’t haunt him. He was dogged in his pursuit of those responsible. With the guilty, he was a raptor.

That is until his wife died.

Following his wife’s death murder victims and their surviving loved ones crowded around him. The effort to beat back the pleading in their eyes was exhausting. He’d been marking time seeming satisfied but really, waiting.

His best friend’s death bound him to the hunt again where Roth finds himself not only on the trail of the person responsible but locked in a life and death struggle with evil.

 

In 2015, Hawaii Governor Ige signed House Bill 623 calling for 100% of energy generation from renewable sources by 2045.

Late in August 2018, the California Senate passed a pair of bills, SB 100, calling for 100% of energy generation by renewable sources by 2045 and 60% by 2030, and SB 700, calling for 3-GWp of behind-the-meter energy storage on schools, farms, homes, nonprofits and businesses by 2026.

SB 700 reauthorizes the state’s Self Generation Incentive program for five years and extends consumer rebates through 2025 for a total cost estimated at $1.2-billion. Both SP 100 and SP 700 require the signature of California Governor Jerry Brown.

Meanwhile, other states and cities across the US are stepping up, in the absence of any federal support or guidance, with their own goals. For example, the city of Orlando, Florida is moving forward with its goal of generating all energy from carbon free sources by 2050.

Comment: Laudable as these efforts are, climate change is moving more rapidly and destructively than are attempts and plans to help ameliorate it.

One hundred percent of energy from carbon free sources by 2050 in Orlando – 100% of energy generation from renewable technologies by 2045 for California and Hawaii– would have been wonderful news 30 years ago when NASA scientist James Hansen warned the US congress of the dire consequences of not acting now.

Following Dr. Hansen’s laudable, dire and scientific-backed warning in 1988, here is what happened. Goals were announced. Conventional energy proponents pushed back. Slowly people began implementing actions to combat climate change. Conventional energy proponents pushed back.

And now … all of our good intentions and willingness to compromise so that those who do not value breathing or believe in science can be brought into the fold have brought us to the point of 2018 being on track to be the fourth hottest year on record, to the point where climate change is accelerating storms past our ability to recover from their aftermaths, to the point where wildfire season is year-round and because of the fires and resulting smoke, the air in the US state of Seattle, Washington was similar to that of Beijing for a period during summer 2018.

The point is that goals of 100% of energy generation from RE by 2045, 2050 – even 2030 do not go far enough. Either humans act now, which will be expensive, or, construct a huge dome to protect themselves from the climate they have destroyed, or make plans to immigrate to other planets.

Hint, the least expensive actions to take are the ones we take now even if those plans displace the conventional energy archetype.

Lesson: The most dangerous threat to all life on earth and the most dangerous predator is humankind. The lesson is that the current state of affairs could have been avoided by acting 30 years ago and not making convenient excuses (globally, every country) not to act. Sadly, the lesson is that we are continuing to delay action while applauding ourselves for setting goals. In other words, humans do not seem to learn their lessons.

In 2017 the current US president Donald Trump signed an executive order to begin scaling back President Obama’s Clean Power Plan and exited the Paris Climate Agreement. In 2018, the Trump Administration’s head of the EPA Scott Pruitt, departed his position under many clouds of scandal, including the installation of a $43,000 secure phone booth.  In August 2018, under Trump’s direction, the EPA announced its replacement for the Clean Power Plan. The new plan, Affordable Clean Energy Rule or ACT, purports to have clean air goals but differs from the CPP in allowing each state to how to achieve its goals including keeping coal plants operating and encouraging efficiency improvements for current coal plants. ACT does not “pick winners and losers.” https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-08/documents/ace-cpp_side_by_side.pdf

Even the Trump administration acknowledges that ACT will result in higher emissions and a higher rate of deaths from these emissions. The Trump administration argues that a lowering of regulations is necessary to make certain that coal plants have time to become more efficient.

In Australia, Federal Coalition MPs voted to support the new National Energy Guarantee or, NEG.  The NEG calls for no new investment in large scale wind, solar or battery storage from 2022 through 2030, and supports current coal generation and new coal generation under the guise of ensuring baseload availability and keeping costs down for ratepayers.  The coalition also called for an immediate end to the Renewable Energy Target, or RET, and end to rebates for rooftop solar, and an exit from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. This means that the NEG is one step closer to becoming Australia’s energy direction.

Comment: Just when you thought the world had turned the corner on climate change, two polluting nations throw their speeding cars in reverse and ram backwards through progress. Both the US ACT and Australia’s NEG are obvious, clear, undeniably coal supporting documents that may, and only may, keep electricity costs down (for a very short time), but in the long term will result in the much higher costs of climate change damage remediation. These costs cannot be avoided by executive order or by legislation with misleading names. Sadly, other countries will take their cues from the US and Australia and turn their backs on needed change.

Lesson: Two more examples of the following – no matter the trend, it can and probably will be reversed and what the government giveth, the government will taketh away.  On the former, the trend to renewable energy is clear, it can be slowed, it will speed up again. Unfortunately, the world is almost out of climate-time. On the latter, coal and all polluters need to remember, what governments of the US and Australia have giveth to you, another government will taketh away.

For the time being 3@3 on Solar PV will be found on my blog. Eventually it will be back on video.

In 2017 the current US president Donald Trump signed an executive order to begin scaling back President Obama’s Clean Power Plan and exited the Paris Climate Agreement. In 2018, the Trump Administration’s head of the EPA Scott Pruitt, departed his position under many clouds of scandal, including the installation of a $43,000 secure phone booth.  In August 2018, under Trump’s direction, the EPA announced its replacement for the Clean Power Plan. The new plan, Affordable Clean Energy Rule or ACT, purports to have clean air goals but differs from the CPP in allowing each state to how to achieve its goals including keeping coal plants operating and encouraging efficiency improvements for current coal plants. ACT does not “pick winners and losers.” https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-08/documents/ace-cpp_side_by_side.pdf

Even the Trump administration acknowledges that ACT will result in higher emissions and a higher rate of deaths from these emissions. The Trump administration argues that a lowering of regulations is necessary to make certain that coal plants have time to become more efficient.

In Australia, Federal Coalition MPs voted to support the new National Energy Guarantee or, NEG.  The NEG calls for no new investment in large scale wind, solar or battery storage from 2022 through 2030, and supports current coal generation and new coal generation under the guise of ensuring baseload availability and keeping costs down for ratepayers.  The coalition also called for an immediate end to the Renewable Energy Target, or RET, and end to rebates for rooftop solar, and an exit from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. This means that the NEG is one step closer to becoming Australia’s energy direction.

Comment: Just when you thought the world had turned the corner on climate change, two polluting nations throw their speeding cars in reverse and ram backwards through progress. Both the US ACT and Australia’s NEG are obvious, clear, undeniably coal supporting documents that may, and only may, keep electricity costs down (for a very short time), but in the long term will result in the much higher costs of climate change damage remediation. These costs cannot be avoided by executive order or by legislation with misleading names. Sadly, other countries will take their cues from the US and Australia and turn their backs on needed change.

Lesson: Two more examples of the following – no matter the trend, it can and probably will be reversed and what the government giveth, the government will taketh away.  On the former, the trend to renewable energy is clear, it can be slowed, it will speed up again. Unfortunately, the world is almost out of climate-time. On the latter, coal and all polluters need to remember, what governments of the US and Australia have giveth to you, another government will taketh away.

 

2.1      Report Highlights

  • The global market for solar modules grew by a compound annual rate of 40% from 1997 (114.1-MWp) to 2017 (93.9-GWp)
  • The cumulative total of PV cells/modules shipped from 1997 through 2017 is 378-GWp
  • In 2017 global system and application revenues increased by 9% from $99-billion in 2016 to $108-billion in 2017
  • In 2017 the grid-commercial application, all system sizes, consumed 89.1% of PV modules
  • Ninety-six percent of modules sold in 2017 were >300-watts and a majority were 72-Cell
  • Due to changes in China, the forecast for 2018 shipments ranges from 80-GWp to a potential of 103.3-GWp, with significant inventory hangover into 2019 with shipments at 103.3-GWp
  • Taken globally, Tender bidding for solar projects continues to trend downward with many bids <$0.03/kWh, indicating a global average in the mid-three cent range
  • From 2012 through 2017 the grid-connected application (residential, commercial and utility owned) grew at a CAGR of 29% while the grid-connected commercial application grew at a CAGR of 35%
  • The regional market of Latin America is estimated to experience growth of 31% to 39% through 2020
  • The regional market of West Asia (primarily India) is estimated to experience growth of 23% to 33% through 2020
  1. Introduction.. 9

1.1       Purpose and Scope. 9

1.2       Methodology. 11

1.3       Format. 15

  1. Executive Summary. 16

2.1       Report Highlights. 21

2.2       Overview of PV Industry Activity through 2017  22

2.2.1        What to Expect Through 2020. 24

2.2.2        Global Analysis Assumptions. 25

2.3       Application Overview.. 27

2.3.1        Application Growth through 2027. 28

2.4       Regional Overview.. 30

  1. Application Forecast: 2017-2022. 34

3.1       Historic Solar Industry Application Growth. 38

3.2       Application Market Share and Growth Rates  51

3.3       Photovoltaic Revenue Growth. 56

3.4       Selling Channels. 59

3.5       Solar Business Model Overview.. 67

3.6       Forecast Demand Volume 2017 – 2022. 74

3.7       Market Sector Analysis. 78

3.7.1        Market Share by Application and Module Size. 79

3.7.2        Remote Industrial Application. 83

3.7.3        Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry. 84

3.7.4        Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection  90

3.7.5        Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals  93

3.7.6        Remote Habitation. 97

3.7.7        Remote Habitation: Water Pumping. 99

3.7.8        Remote Habitation : Village Power. 103

3.7.9        Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting. 111

3.7.10      Remote Habitation: Other. 114

3.7.11      Consumer Power. 117

3.7.12      Grid-Connected Application. 122

3.7.13 Grid-Residential 131

3.7.14 Grid-Commercial 135

3.7.15 Grid-Commercial Multi-Megawatt Deployment. 139

3.7.16 Grid- Utility Owned. 141

3.7.17       Consumer Indoor. 143

3.8       Application Forecast to 2027. 146

  1. North America: US and Canada. 151

4.1       United States. 158

4.1.1        U.S. Market Description. 158

4.1.2        Examples of US Business Models. 169

4.1.3        Examples of US Incentives. 174

4.1.4        Overview of U.S. States. 183

4.2       Canada. 186

4.2.1        Overview of Canada’s PV Incentive Programs  188

5      Latin America. 190

5.1       Mexico. 199

5.2       Chile. 203

5.3       Central America. 206

5.4       South America. 208

5.5        Caribbean. 210

  1. Asia Pacific & Oceania. 211

6.1       West Asia. 220

6.1.1 India. 221

6.2       Asia. 225

6.2.1        China. 226

6.2.2        Japan. 231

6.3       Southeast Asia. 234

6.4       Oceania. 237

7      Europe. 240

7.1 Germany. 250

7.2       France. 251

8      Africa and the Middle East. 252

8.1       Africa. 260

8.1.1        Republic of South Africa. 267

8.2        Middle East. 270

 

 

 

Figures

Figure 2.1 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1977 to 2017. 22

Figure 2.2 Global Forecast: 2017 through 2020. 24

Figure 2.3 Market Shares by Module Size, 2017. 29

Figure 3.1 Global Application Shares 2017. 35

Figure 3.2 Off-Grid Application Growth: 2012-2017. 40

Figure 3.3 Grid-Connected Application Growth: 2012-2017. 40

Figure 3.4 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1986-2000. 41

Figure 3.5 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1987-2017. 42

Figure 3.6 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1977 to 2017. 44

Figure 3.7 PV Inventory, Capacity, Production, Shipments, Installations & Defective Modules, 2017 into 2018. 55

Figure 3.8 Photovoltaic Module Shipments, Costs, ASPs, Price/Cost Delta, 2007-2017. 56

Figure 3.9 Worldwide Cell/Module Revenue Forecast 2007-2022. 57

Figure 3.10 Worldwide System & Application Revenues, 2016 & 2017. 58

Figure 3.11 Worldwide System & Application Shares, 2016 & 2017. 58

Figure 3.12 Market Shares by Module Size, 2016. 80

Figure 3.13 Market Shares by Module Size, 2017. 80

Figure 3.14 Remote Industrial Regional Market Shares, 2017. 83

Figure 3.15 Remote Industrial Sub-Application Market Shares, 2017. 83

Figure 3.16 Remote Habitation Regional Market Shares, 2017. 98

Figure 3.17 Remote Habitation Sub Application Shares, 2017. 98

Figure 3.18 Example of Remote PV Powered Generator. 104

Figure 3.19 Consumer Power Regional Market Shares, 2017. 118

Figure 3.20 Consumer Power Sub-Application Shares, 2017. 118

Figure 3.21 Grid Residential, Commercial and Utility-Owned Regional Market Shares, 2017. 123

Figure 3.22 Grid-Connected Residential, Commercial and Utility Owned Shares 2017. 123

Figure 3.23 Grid-Connected History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 126

Figure 3.24 Grid-Residential History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 132

Figure 3.25 Grid-Commercial History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 135

Figure 3.26 Grid-Commercial Off-Roof & On-Roof, Tracking Versus Non-Tracking 2017. 136

Figure 3.27 Grid-Utility Owned History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 141

Figure 3.28 Consumer Indoor Regional Market Shares, 2017. 143

Figure 3.29 Consumer Indoor Sub Application Shares, 2017. 143

Figure 3.30 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast, MWp 2007-2027. 146

Figure 3.31: Price History & Forecast all ASP Categories, 1997-2027 (2017 Constant Dollars) 150

Figure 4.1 North America Forecast 2016-2020. 153

Figure 4.2 North America Application Split 2017. 154

Figure 4.3 US PV Application Shares 2017. 158

Figure 4.4 US PV Application Contribution 2007-2017. 159

Figure 4.5 US PV Commercial Application System Sizes, 2012-2017. 160

Figure 4.6 US Top States for Solar PV Deployment, 2017. 164

Figure 4.7 US Demand/Supply Profile, 2012-2017. 166

Figure 4.8 US Supply and Demand Market Metrics 2017 into 2018. 167

Figure 4.9 Canada Application Shares, 2017. 186

Figure 5.1 Latin America Forecast 2017-2020. 191

Figure 5.2 Latin America Region Application Share 2017. 192

Figure 5.3 Mexico Application Shares 2017. 200

Figure 5.4 Chile Application Shares 2017. 204

Figure 5.5 Central America Application Shares 2017. 206

Figure 5.6 South America Application Shares 2017. 208

Figure 5.7 Caribbean Application Shares 2017. 210

Figure 6.1 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Forecast 2016-2020. 213

Figure 6.2 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Application Shares, 2017. 213

Figure 6.3 Global Module Assembly Capacity 2017. 214

Figure 6.4 Regional Shipments & Demand, Malaysia, Japan, China and India 2012-2017. 215

Figure 6.5 West Asia Application Shares, 2017. 220

Figure 6.6 India Application Shares, 2017. 221

Figure 6.7 India Solar PV Forecast 2016-2020. 224

Figure 6.8 Asia Application Shares 2017. 225

Figure 6.9 China Application Shares, 2017. 226

Figure 6.10 China Forecast 2016-2020. 230

Figure 6.11 Japan Application Shares, 2017. 231

Figure 6.12 Japan Forecast 2016-2020. 233

Figure 6.13 South East Asia Application Shares, 2017. 234

Figure 6.14 South East Asia Forecast 2016-2020. 236

Figure 6.15 Oceania and Australia Application Shares, 2017. 237

Figure 6.16: Australia Forecast 2016-2020. 239

Figure 7.1 Europe Demand for Solar PV 2005-2015. 242

Figure 7.2 Europe Forecast 2016-2020. 244

Figure 7.3 Europe Application Shares 2017. 245

Figure 7.4: Germany Forecast 2016-2020. 250

Figure 7.5: France Forecast 2016-2020. 251

Figure 8.1 Africa & the Middle East Forecast, 2017-2020. 253

Figure 8.2 Africa & the Middle East Application Shares 2017. 254

Figure 8.3 Africa Application Shares 2017. 260

Figure 8.4 North Africa Forecast 2017-2020. 264

Figure 8.5 Central & Southern Africa Forecast 2017-2020. 264

Figure 8.6 Republic of South Africa Application Shares 2017. 267

Figure 8.7 Republic of South Africa Forecast 2016. 269

Figure 8.8 Middle East Application Shares 2017. 270

Figure 8.9 Middle East Forecast 2017-2020. 273

 

Tables

Table 2.1 Overview of Low Forecast Assumptions. 25

Table 2.2 Overview of Conservative Forecast Assumptions. 26

Table 2.3 Overview of Accelerated Forecast Assumptions. 26

Table 2.4 Major Market Categories and Sales Volume by Channel. 27

Table 2.5 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2007-2027. 28

Table 2.6 Regional Application Shares 2017*. 30

Table 2.7: Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 31

Table 2.8: Regional Attractiveness 2018*. 33

Table 3.1 PV Industry Growth 1997 – 2017. 43

Table 3.2 Application Trends 2002-2017 (1,2,3) 46

Table 3.3 Generic Application Segments. 47

Table 3.4 Regional Application Deployment, 2017*. 48

Table 3.5 Regional Demand, Installations and Shipments, 2012-2017*. 49

Table 3.6 2017 PV Module Assembly Capacity, c-Si Cell/Thin Film Capacity, Shipments & Announced Shipments *. 50

Table 3.7 Aggregate Application Growth 2012-2017*. 51

Table 3.8 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2007-2027. 52

Table 3.9 Three Year Application Forecast, 2017 – 2020*. 54

Table 3.10 2017 Selling Channels for Major Applications by Volume Share (1) (2) 61

Table 3.11 Major Photovoltaic Application Categories. 73

Table 3.12 PV Industry Application Growth* 1992-2017. 74

Table 3.13 Conservative Application Forecast, 2012-2022*. 76

Table 3.14 Accelerated Application Forecast, 2012-2022*. 77

Table 3.15 Application Categories. 78

Table 3.16 Historic Market Share by Application & Module Size. 81

Table 3.17 2017 Market Share by Application & Module Size (1) 82

Table 3.18 Communications & Telemetry, MWp & % of Category 2012-2022(1) 85

Table 3.19 Cathodic Protection Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 92

Table 3.20 Transportation Signals Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 96

Table 3.21 Water Pumping MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 101

Table 3.22 Village Power Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 107

Table 3.23 Outdoor Lighting Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 113

Table 3.24 Other Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 116

Table 3.25 Consumer Power Applications MWp & % of Category 2012-2022(1) 121

Table 3.26 Grid-Connected Application Growth 1997-2017*. 122

Table 3.27 Grid Connected Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 127

Table 3.28 Summary of End User Concerns*. 129

Table 3.29 US Average System prices 2012 through 2017. 130

Table 3.30 Residential Business Models*. 134

Table 3.31 Cost Analysis for PV Systems >5-MWp in the US, China and India. 140

Table 3.32 Consumer Indoor MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 145

Table 4.1: North America Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 152

Table 4.2 North America Demand Growth* Low, Conservative & Accelerated, 2016-2020. 155

Table 4.3 North America Application % of Total* 2015, 2016, 2017. 156

Table 4.4 US and Canada Regional Attractiveness 2018. 157

Table 4.5 US Electricity Prices in Cents/kWh by Segment & Region Mid-2017. 165

Table 4.6: US System Prices, 2011-2017. 168

Table 4.7 US Forecast by Application Segment, 2017-2022*. 182

Table 4.8 US State Market Attractiveness 2018. 185

Table 4.9 Electricity Rates by Canadian Province in cents/kWh. 187

Table 4.10:  Overview of Rebates and Net Metering in Canada. 188

Table 4.11:  Ontario Power Authority FiT/MicroFiT Price Schedule as of January 1, 2017. 189

Table 5.1: Latin America Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 190

Table 5.2 Latin America Regional Growth, 2016-20201,2,3,4) 193

Table 5.3 Latin America Regional Application Shares 2017*. 194

Table 5.4 Latin America Market Attractiveness 2018. 198

Table 5.5 Mexico Average Utility Scale System Costs. 199

Table 5.6 Chile Average Utility Scale System Costs. 203

Table 6.1 Asia Pacific & Oceania Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 211

Table 6.2 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Growth 2016-2020 MWp (1,2,3) 216

Table 6.3 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Application Breakdown % 20171) 217

Table 6.4 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Attractiveness 2018. 219

Table 6.5 Example of Utility Scale Costs in India. 223

Table 6.6 Example of Utility Scale Costs in China. 229

Table 6.7 Example of Utility Scale Costs in Japan. 232

Table 7.1 Europe Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 243

Table 7.2: Europe Growth 2016-2020 MWp. 247

Table 7.3: Europe Application Shares 2017*. 248

Table 7.4: Europe Attractiveness 2018. 249

Table 8.1 Africa & Middle East Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 252

Table 8.2: Africa & the Middle East Application Shares, 2017*. 255

Table 8.3 Africa & the Middle East Regional Growth 2016-2020*. 256

Table 8.4: Africa & the Middle East Select Market Attractiveness 2018. 259

Table 8.5 Namibia Net Metering Avoided Cost. 266

Lyrics by Paula Mints, Copyright 2018

I walk this life alone

Don’t you worry about me baby

Can’t bring myself to atone

For sins I committed gladly

 

I know you want me home

But I lost the feel for it lately

I’m better on my own

Don’t you worry about me baby

 

I think of you sometimes

Usually when I’m lonely

These dreams don’t last too long

Just long enough to wake me

 

I walk this life alone

Don’t try and follow baby

If you want me, I’ll be along

Long enough for you to taste me

 

I know you cry sometimes

I know you think you need me

But I need to walk this life alone

This road is what completes me

 

I’ll think of you sometimes

When I’m taking things more slowly

Or maybe in the night

Dream of you pressing against me softly

 

And I’ll be back around

But don’t bother to expect me

Because I walk this life alone

Except for the ghosts who chase me