1. Expect prices to stay high through at least the first half of 2022 as the supply chain continues working itself out AND
  2. Expect prices to drop for all markets sometime during the second half of the year as the industry as supply chains recover and overcapacity asserts – except for US buyers as the Senate passed the Forced Labor Bill and eventually, President Biden is certain to sign it into law
  3. Expect the bifacial exemption from the 201 tariffs in the US to stay in place until … it doesn’t, but don’t worry, it will be back
  4. Expect manufacturers to continue adding n-type cell capacity even as high purity polysilicon additions lag
  5. Expect TOPCon to be the n and p type capacity addition winner as manufacturers begin the switch from PERC
  6. Expect announcements of new cell manufacturing capacity in Europe and the US
  7. Don’t expect all of these announcements to come true
  8. Do expect India to start adding manufacturing capacity while keeping their tariff in place
  9. Expect many, many, many product and service offerings promising to streamline and speed up module and component deliveries – this is the product of 2022 BUT
  10. Expect most of them to be a waste of money – these new products will likely include:
    1. New charges to ensure delivery from the port to the project
    1. New insurance offerings to cover unexpected supply chain hiccups
    1. New charges from sellers to get the product ready to pass customs in the US and other countries (in the US, these will be specific to the Forced Labor Bans)
    1. New consulting products to help developers and manufacturers understand new rules – advice that is freely available already
    1. New packaging to reduce the time from crate to field
    1. Many many companies offering quality inspections
    1. Etc.
  11. Do expect governments to continue discussing and taking meaningful action on forced labor in Xinjiang and potentially cobalt mining in the Congo
  12. Expect more announcements about Perovskite technology but
  13. Do not expect more installations of Perovskite technology and
  14. Do expect governments to continue investing in Perovskite technology
  15. Dread further buildup of solar manufacturing capacity in China and the countries of Southeast Asia as it makes for a lopsided, unhealthy supply chain with little options when things go awry
  16. Dread continued quality erosion in polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module manufacturing as pilot scale production becomes a thing of the past and shortcuts become the new normal
  17. Expect pure play cell manufacturers such as Aiko and Tongwei to aggressively add cell capacity as others, such as Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar, add wafer and module assembly capacity, sending wafers out for processing to be returned as cells
  18. Expect bids on projects to remain high through mid-2022 before dropping like a stone towards the end of the year
  19. Dread the continued use of coal to provide electricity to solar manufacturing
  20. Hope for more distributed solar + storage so that countries can move away from the outdated and archaic utility scale business models
  21. Hope governments invest in updated, resilient, and renewable ready utility infrastructures because a flexible, resilient grid, renewable energy technologies, and storage are the keys to a future of energy independence

22. Expect the solar market to grow despite all obstacles and setbacks because the trend is clear and solar is finally big business