- The global market for solar modules grew by a compound annual rate of 40% from 1997 (114.1-MWp) to 2017 (93.9-GWp)
- The cumulative total of PV cells/modules shipped from 1997 through 2017 is 378-GWp
- In 2017 global system and application revenues increased by 9% from $99-billion in 2016 to $108-billion in 2017
- In 2017 the grid-commercial application, all system sizes, consumed 89.1% of PV modules
- Ninety-six percent of modules sold in 2017 were >300-watts and a majority were 72-Cell
- Due to changes in China, the forecast for 2018 shipments ranges from 80-GWp to a potential of 103.3-GWp, with significant inventory hangover into 2019 with shipments at 103.3-GWp
- Taken globally, Tender bidding for solar projects continues to trend downward with many bids <$0.03/kWh, indicating a global average in the mid-three cent range
- From 2012 through 2017 the grid-connected application (residential, commercial and utility owned) grew at a CAGR of 29% while the grid-connected commercial application grew at a CAGR of 35%
- The regional market of Latin America is estimated to experience growth of 31% to 39% through 2020
- The regional market of West Asia (primarily India) is estimated to experience growth of 23% to 33% through 2020
2.2 Overview of PV Industry Activity through 2017 22
2.2.1 What to Expect Through 2020. 24
2.2.2 Global Analysis Assumptions. 25
2.3.1 Application Growth through 2027. 28
3.1 Historic Solar Industry Application Growth. 38
3.2 Application Market Share and Growth Rates 51
3.3 Photovoltaic Revenue Growth. 56
3.5 Solar Business Model Overview.. 67
3.6 Forecast Demand Volume 2017 – 2022. 74
3.7 Market Sector Analysis. 78
3.7.1 Market Share by Application and Module Size. 79
3.7.2 Remote Industrial Application. 83
3.7.3 Remote Industrial: Communications and Telemetry. 84
3.7.4 Remote Industrial: Cathodic Protection 90
3.7.5 Remote Industrial: Transportation Signals 93
3.7.7 Remote Habitation: Water Pumping. 99
3.7.8 Remote Habitation : Village Power. 103
3.7.9 Remote Habitation: Outdoor Lighting. 111
3.7.10 Remote Habitation: Other. 114
3.7.12 Grid-Connected Application. 122
3.7.15 Grid-Commercial Multi-Megawatt Deployment. 139
3.7.16 Grid- Utility Owned. 141
3.8 Application Forecast to 2027. 146
4.1.1 U.S. Market Description. 158
4.1.2 Examples of US Business Models. 169
4.1.3 Examples of US Incentives. 174
4.1.4 Overview of U.S. States. 183
4.2.1 Overview of Canada’s PV Incentive Programs 188
8 Africa and the Middle East. 252
8.1.1 Republic of South Africa. 267
Figures
Figure 2.1 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1977 to 2017. 22
Figure 2.2 Global Forecast: 2017 through 2020. 24
Figure 2.3 Market Shares by Module Size, 2017. 29
Figure 3.1 Global Application Shares 2017. 35
Figure 3.2 Off-Grid Application Growth: 2012-2017. 40
Figure 3.3 Grid-Connected Application Growth: 2012-2017. 40
Figure 3.4 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1986-2000. 41
Figure 3.5 Off Grid & Grid Connected Application Growth, 1987-2017. 42
Figure 3.6 Photovoltaic Industry Activity: 1977 to 2017. 44
Figure 3.8 Photovoltaic Module Shipments, Costs, ASPs, Price/Cost Delta, 2007-2017. 56
Figure 3.9 Worldwide Cell/Module Revenue Forecast 2007-2022. 57
Figure 3.10 Worldwide System & Application Revenues, 2016 & 2017. 58
Figure 3.11 Worldwide System & Application Shares, 2016 & 2017. 58
Figure 3.12 Market Shares by Module Size, 2016. 80
Figure 3.13 Market Shares by Module Size, 2017. 80
Figure 3.14 Remote Industrial Regional Market Shares, 2017. 83
Figure 3.15 Remote Industrial Sub-Application Market Shares, 2017. 83
Figure 3.16 Remote Habitation Regional Market Shares, 2017. 98
Figure 3.17 Remote Habitation Sub Application Shares, 2017. 98
Figure 3.18 Example of Remote PV Powered Generator. 104
Figure 3.19 Consumer Power Regional Market Shares, 2017. 118
Figure 3.20 Consumer Power Sub-Application Shares, 2017. 118
Figure 3.21 Grid Residential, Commercial and Utility-Owned Regional Market Shares, 2017. 123
Figure 3.22 Grid-Connected Residential, Commercial and Utility Owned Shares 2017. 123
Figure 3.23 Grid-Connected History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 126
Figure 3.24 Grid-Residential History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 132
Figure 3.25 Grid-Commercial History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 135
Figure 3.26 Grid-Commercial Off-Roof & On-Roof, Tracking Versus Non-Tracking 2017. 136
Figure 3.27 Grid-Utility Owned History & Forecast, 2012-2022. 141
Figure 3.28 Consumer Indoor Regional Market Shares, 2017. 143
Figure 3.29 Consumer Indoor Sub Application Shares, 2017. 143
Figure 3.30 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast, MWp 2007-2027. 146
Figure 3.31: Price History & Forecast all ASP Categories, 1997-2027 (2017 Constant Dollars) 150
Figure 4.1 North America Forecast 2016-2020. 153
Figure 4.2 North America Application Split 2017. 154
Figure 4.3 US PV Application Shares 2017. 158
Figure 4.4 US PV Application Contribution 2007-2017. 159
Figure 4.5 US PV Commercial Application System Sizes, 2012-2017. 160
Figure 4.6 US Top States for Solar PV Deployment, 2017. 164
Figure 4.7 US Demand/Supply Profile, 2012-2017. 166
Figure 4.8 US Supply and Demand Market Metrics 2017 into 2018. 167
Figure 4.9 Canada Application Shares, 2017. 186
Figure 5.1 Latin America Forecast 2017-2020. 191
Figure 5.2 Latin America Region Application Share 2017. 192
Figure 5.3 Mexico Application Shares 2017. 200
Figure 5.4 Chile Application Shares 2017. 204
Figure 5.5 Central America Application Shares 2017. 206
Figure 5.6 South America Application Shares 2017. 208
Figure 5.7 Caribbean Application Shares 2017. 210
Figure 6.1 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Forecast 2016-2020. 213
Figure 6.2 Asia-Pacific/Oceania Application Shares, 2017. 213
Figure 6.3 Global Module Assembly Capacity 2017. 214
Figure 6.4 Regional Shipments & Demand, Malaysia, Japan, China and India 2012-2017. 215
Figure 6.5 West Asia Application Shares, 2017. 220
Figure 6.6 India Application Shares, 2017. 221
Figure 6.7 India Solar PV Forecast 2016-2020. 224
Figure 6.8 Asia Application Shares 2017. 225
Figure 6.9 China Application Shares, 2017. 226
Figure 6.10 China Forecast 2016-2020. 230
Figure 6.11 Japan Application Shares, 2017. 231
Figure 6.12 Japan Forecast 2016-2020. 233
Figure 6.13 South East Asia Application Shares, 2017. 234
Figure 6.14 South East Asia Forecast 2016-2020. 236
Figure 6.15 Oceania and Australia Application Shares, 2017. 237
Figure 6.16: Australia Forecast 2016-2020. 239
Figure 7.1 Europe Demand for Solar PV 2005-2015. 242
Figure 7.2 Europe Forecast 2016-2020. 244
Figure 7.3 Europe Application Shares 2017. 245
Figure 7.4: Germany Forecast 2016-2020. 250
Figure 7.5: France Forecast 2016-2020. 251
Figure 8.1 Africa & the Middle East Forecast, 2017-2020. 253
Figure 8.2 Africa & the Middle East Application Shares 2017. 254
Figure 8.3 Africa Application Shares 2017. 260
Figure 8.4 North Africa Forecast 2017-2020. 264
Figure 8.5 Central & Southern Africa Forecast 2017-2020. 264
Figure 8.6 Republic of South Africa Application Shares 2017. 267
Figure 8.7 Republic of South Africa Forecast 2016. 269
Figure 8.8 Middle East Application Shares 2017. 270
Figure 8.9 Middle East Forecast 2017-2020. 273
Tables
Table 2.1 Overview of Low Forecast Assumptions. 25
Table 2.2 Overview of Conservative Forecast Assumptions. 26
Table 2.3 Overview of Accelerated Forecast Assumptions. 26
Table 2.4 Major Market Categories and Sales Volume by Channel. 27
Table 2.5 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2007-2027. 28
Table 2.6 Regional Application Shares 2017*. 30
Table 2.7: Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 31
Table 2.8: Regional Attractiveness 2018*. 33
Table 3.1 PV Industry Growth 1997 – 2017. 43
Table 3.2 Application Trends 2002-2017 (1,2,3) 46
Table 3.3 Generic Application Segments. 47
Table 3.4 Regional Application Deployment, 2017*. 48
Table 3.5 Regional Demand, Installations and Shipments, 2012-2017*. 49
Table 3.7 Aggregate Application Growth 2012-2017*. 51
Table 3.8 Major Application History, Growth, Forecast & CAGR Rates 2007-2027. 52
Table 3.9 Three Year Application Forecast, 2017 – 2020*. 54
Table 3.10 2017 Selling Channels for Major Applications by Volume Share (1) (2) 61
Table 3.11 Major Photovoltaic Application Categories. 73
Table 3.12 PV Industry Application Growth* 1992-2017. 74
Table 3.13 Conservative Application Forecast, 2012-2022*. 76
Table 3.14 Accelerated Application Forecast, 2012-2022*. 77
Table 3.15 Application Categories. 78
Table 3.16 Historic Market Share by Application & Module Size. 81
Table 3.17 2017 Market Share by Application & Module Size (1) 82
Table 3.18 Communications & Telemetry, MWp & % of Category 2012-2022(1) 85
Table 3.19 Cathodic Protection Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 92
Table 3.20 Transportation Signals Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 96
Table 3.21 Water Pumping MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 101
Table 3.22 Village Power Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 107
Table 3.23 Outdoor Lighting Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 113
Table 3.24 Other Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 116
Table 3.25 Consumer Power Applications MWp & % of Category 2012-2022(1) 121
Table 3.26 Grid-Connected Application Growth 1997-2017*. 122
Table 3.27 Grid Connected Applications MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 127
Table 3.28 Summary of End User Concerns*. 129
Table 3.29 US Average System prices 2012 through 2017. 130
Table 3.30 Residential Business Models*. 134
Table 3.31 Cost Analysis for PV Systems >5-MWp in the US, China and India. 140
Table 3.32 Consumer Indoor MWp & % of Category, 2012-2022(1) 145
Table 4.1: North America Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 152
Table 4.2 North America Demand Growth* Low, Conservative & Accelerated, 2016-2020. 155
Table 4.3 North America Application % of Total* 2015, 2016, 2017. 156
Table 4.4 US and Canada Regional Attractiveness 2018. 157
Table 4.5 US Electricity Prices in Cents/kWh by Segment & Region Mid-2017. 165
Table 4.6: US System Prices, 2011-2017. 168
Table 4.7 US Forecast by Application Segment, 2017-2022*. 182
Table 4.8 US State Market Attractiveness 2018. 185
Table 4.9 Electricity Rates by Canadian Province in cents/kWh. 187
Table 4.10: Overview of Rebates and Net Metering in Canada. 188
Table 4.11: Ontario Power Authority FiT/MicroFiT Price Schedule as of January 1, 2017. 189
Table 5.1: Latin America Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 190
Table 5.2 Latin America Regional Growth, 2016-20201,2,3,4) 193
Table 5.3 Latin America Regional Application Shares 2017*. 194
Table 5.4 Latin America Market Attractiveness 2018. 198
Table 5.5 Mexico Average Utility Scale System Costs. 199
Table 5.6 Chile Average Utility Scale System Costs. 203
Table 6.1 Asia Pacific & Oceania Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 211
Table 6.2 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Growth 2016-2020 MWp (1,2,3) 216
Table 6.3 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Application Breakdown % 20171) 217
Table 6.4 Asia-Pacific-Oceania Regional Attractiveness 2018. 219
Table 6.5 Example of Utility Scale Costs in India. 223
Table 6.6 Example of Utility Scale Costs in China. 229
Table 6.7 Example of Utility Scale Costs in Japan. 232
Table 7.1 Europe Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 243
Table 7.2: Europe Growth 2016-2020 MWp. 247
Table 7.3: Europe Application Shares 2017*. 248
Table 7.4: Europe Attractiveness 2018. 249
Table 8.1 Africa & Middle East Regional Forecast 2016 – 2020*. 252
Table 8.2: Africa & the Middle East Application Shares, 2017*. 255
Table 8.3 Africa & the Middle East Regional Growth 2016-2020*. 256
Table 8.4: Africa & the Middle East Select Market Attractiveness 2018. 259
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